Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 18–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2476 CLT 09:17 → PNS 10:06 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5429 CLT 18:53 → PNS 19:44 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2476 American	CLT 09:17	PNS 10:06	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3570 Envoy	CLT 11:44	PNS 12:37	18%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 3038 American	CLT 23:03	PNS 23:53	26%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 5617 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:35	PNS 16:22	26%	10%	1.3%	71%
AA 5429 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:53	PNS 19:44	27%	11%	2.1%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON