Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 3269 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3269 CLT 07:12 → PVD 09:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2338 CLT 16:20 → PVD 18:30 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3269 American	CLT 07:12	PVD 09:20	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1877 American Flight history →	CLT 11:06	PVD 12:56	18%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 3010 American	CLT 13:18	PVD 15:23	21%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2318 American Flight history →	CLT 21:57	PVD 00:14	22%	5%	1.7%	69%
AA 2338 American Flight history →	CLT 16:20	PVD 18:30	23%	7%	1.1%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON