Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Rapid City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rapid City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 09:04 → RAP 09:47DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest	5h 27m	94%	77%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:37 → RAP 22:00AA 3567 · flown by Envoy	8h 56m	99%	68%
American Details →	CLT 11:13 → DFW 13:17AA 2747	1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:04 → RAP 16:43AA 3532 · flown by Envoy	7h 30m	92%	66%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	49m Denver	DEN 11:16 → RAP 12:35UA 1585	5h 55m	84%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON