Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1753 at 08:07 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 1753 CLT 08:07 → RDU 09:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3178 CLT 22:37 → RDU 23:28 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1753 American	CLT 08:07	RDU 09:15	12%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 1768 American	CLT 09:08	RDU 10:11	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2688 American Flight history →	CLT 11:04	RDU 12:07	19%	4%	0.9%	85%
AA 3072 American	CLT 12:57	RDU 14:00	21%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2704 American Flight history →	CLT 14:38	RDU 15:46	24%	6%	0.9%	74%
AA 1904 American Flight history →	CLT 18:46	RDU 19:57	29%	8%	1.0%	74%
AA 2799 American	CLT 17:17	RDU 18:20	30%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 494 American Flight history →	CLT 22:57	RDU 23:58	33%	8%	1.0%	74%
AA 3178 American Flight history →	CLT 22:37	RDU 23:28	38%	8%	1.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON