Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 5145 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 5145 CLT 09:35 → SDF 11:08 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 811 CLT 18:13 → SDF 19:48 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5145 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:35	SDF 11:08	21%	4%	1.0%	86%
AA 2296 American	CLT 13:33	SDF 15:06	21%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 3219 American Flight history →	CLT 16:03	SDF 17:35	26%	8%	1.1%	88%worse than usual
AA 1919 American	CLT 22:37	SDF 00:05	29%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 671 American Flight history →	CLT 20:33	SDF 22:01	32%	10%	1.0%	73%
AA 811 American	CLT 18:13	SDF 19:48	32%	11%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON