Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: American via Miami, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching Charlotte Amalie on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2684 American Flight history →	CLT 09:04	STT 12:59	14%	4%	1.1%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 09:58 → STT 13:45DL 1899	8h 15m	99%	81%
American Details →	CLT 05:59 → MIA 07:59AA 1165	1h 59m Miami	MIA 09:58 → STT 12:52AA 943	6h 53m	99%	79%
American Details →	CLT 07:05 → MIA 09:12AA 770	3h 43m Miami	MIA 12:55 → STT 15:43AA 1391	8h 38m	99%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 07:05 → MIA 09:12AA 770	46m Miami	MIA 09:58 → STT 12:52AA 943	5h 47m	70%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON