Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2657 at 11:39 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2657 American	CLT 11:39	TUL 13:26	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2662 American Flight history →	CLT 18:25	TUL 19:58	27%	8%	0.8%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 08:20 → TUL 09:18DL 2754	4h 48m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:40 → ATL 09:53DL 3156	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620	4h 16m	91%	79%
Delta Details →	CLT 11:53 → ATL 13:09DL 3190	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186	5h 00m	97%	78%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:59 → TUL 12:14AA 2352	7h 29m	100%	74%
American Details →	CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986	1h 42m Phoenix	PHX 12:46 → TUL 17:13AA 3544 · flown by Envoy	8h 32m	92%	72%
United Details →	CLT 15:04 → IAH 16:39UA 6236 · flown by Mesa	3h 27m Houston	IAH 20:06 → TUL 21:59UA 1927	7h 55m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	4h 42m	89%	67%
United Details →	CLT 15:16 → ORD 16:34UA 3491 · flown by Republic	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 20:11 → TUL 22:06UA 2351	7h 50m	100%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 16:26 → LGA 18:29AA 1722	1h 00m New York	LGA 19:29 → TUL 22:08AA 4341 · flown by Republic	6h 42m	50%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON