Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 5575 at 09:39, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5575 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:39	TVC 11:50	23%	4%	1.3%	90%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	2h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 34m	98%	82%
American Details →	CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 11:58 → TVC 14:08AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	6h 22m	99%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON