Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 5446 at 09:01 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 5446 CLT 09:01 → XNA 10:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest MQ 3367 CLT 22:31 → XNA 23:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5446 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:01	XNA 10:35	16%	3%	1.4%	81%
AA 5233 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:28	XNA 17:52	22%	5%	1.7%	74%
OH 5491 PSA	CLT 13:31	XNA 14:56	22%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 4087 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 18:05	XNA 19:36	27%	6%	1.2%	82%
MQ 3367 Envoy	CLT 22:31	XNA 23:50	28%	5%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON