Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 5700 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 44–45%.

Safest bet that day DL 5700 CMH 06:00 → LGA 07:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 4791 CMH 18:17 → LGA 20:23 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5700 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:00	LGA 07:49	8%	3%	3.5%	94%
YX 4625 Republic	CMH 06:34	LGA 08:21	13%	3%	3.5%	no record
DL 5691 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:00	LGA 09:49	15%	4%	3.1%	86%
AA 4604 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 09:08	LGA 11:07	16%	6%	3.5%	87%
YX 5862 Republic	CMH 11:29	LGA 13:16	28%	10%	4.3%	no record
DL 5669 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 14:28	LGA 16:20	40%	15%	7.4%	78%worse than usual
AA 4381 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 14:37	LGA 16:25	41%	17%	7.4%	77%worse than usual
DL 5675 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 17:30	LGA 19:28	44%	27%	11.5%	88%worse than usual
YX 4500 Republic	CMH 16:13	LGA 17:59	44%	22%	9.1%	no record
AA 4791 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 18:17	LGA 20:23	45%	28%	11.5%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON