Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4239 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4239 CMH 05:59 → PHX 07:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1958 CMH 22:19 → PHX 23:38 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4239 Southwest	CMH 05:59	PHX 07:15	6%	1%	3.1%	no record
WN 1268 Southwest	CMH 17:26	PHX 18:35	22%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 1399 American	CMH 21:44	PHX 23:06	25%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 1958 American Flight history →	CMH 22:19	PHX 23:38	28%	10%	1.7%	88%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic	47m Chicago	ORD 06:56 → PHX 08:38UA 2795	6h 08m	92%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON