tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1488 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1488 Southwest CMH 05:09 RSW 07:48 5% 1% 2.4% no record
WN 3672 Southwest CMH 15:10 RSW 17:45 23% 8% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 56m Chicago ORD 07:05 → RSW 11:14UA 1740 5h 44m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:33 → ATL 09:11DL 2909 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 7h 02m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:57 → IAD 07:26UA 3430 · flown by Republic 49m Dulles IAD 08:15 → RSW 10:53UA 1406 4h 56m 89% 80%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 6h 11m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → CMH 07:52 → EWR 09:44UA 3457 · flown by Republic 2h 37m Newark EWR 12:21 → RSW 15:36UA 1810 7h 44m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → CMH 10:58 → ATL 12:37DL 1479 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 5h 46m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → CMH 08:05 → PHL 09:45AA 4711 · flown by Republic 3h 21m Philadelphia PHL 13:06 → RSW 16:13AA 1834 8h 08m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → CMH 05:54 → PHL 07:38AA 2867 1h 09m Philadelphia PHL 08:47 → RSW 11:50AA 2365 5h 56m 97% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON