tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:40, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1271 Southwest CMH 09:54 SAN 11:36 15% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:57 → IAD 07:26UA 3430 · flown by Republic 1h 41m Dulles IAD 09:07 → SAN 11:44UA 1930 8h 47m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 1h 15m Chicago ORD 07:24 → SAN 09:51UA 2428 7h 21m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:31 → SLC 09:21DL 2142 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 12:04 → SAN 13:08DL 1296 8h 37m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 08:36 → SAN 10:12DL 725 7h 12m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic 3h 10m Detroit DTW 12:32 → SAN 14:12DL 761 8h 57m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:33 → ATL 09:11DL 2909 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → SAN 13:17DL 843 8h 44m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic 55m Detroit DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492 6h 47m 93% 78%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:55 → EWR 07:47UA 3458 · flown by Republic 1h 44m Newark EWR 09:31 → SAN 12:18UA 1826 9h 23m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 07:31 → ORD 08:00UA 466 46m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 6h 50m 62% 49%
AmericanDetails → CMH 11:46 → DFW 13:25AA 1279 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:11 → SAN 15:10AA 648 6h 24m 74% 45%
UnitedDetails → CMH 17:11 → DEN 18:22UA 1389 58m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 6h 35m 61% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON