Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:39, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 462 Alaska	CMH 08:31	SEA 10:54	22%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 13m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:33 → ATL 09:11DL 2909	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:17 → SEA 13:26DL 629	8h 53m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:39 → ATL 10:17DL 3165	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 13:46 → SEA 15:54DL 481	10h 15m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → SEA 16:33DL 877	8h 40m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:13 → BOS 08:20DL 5663 · flown by Republic	3h 09m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332	11h 37m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic	3h 34m Detroit	DTW 12:56 → SEA 14:43DL 728	9h 28m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:31 → SLC 09:21DL 2142	3h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	10h 04m	99%	77%
United Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic	51m Chicago	ORD 07:00 → SEA 09:40UA 341	7h 10m	93%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CMH 17:11 → DEN 18:22UA 1389	58m Denver	DEN 19:20 → SEA 21:29UA 2767	7h 18m	61%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON