Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 3423 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–47%.

Safest bet that day UA 3423 CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 5083 CVG 17:19 → EWR 19:18 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3423 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 06:00	EWR 08:07	5%	3%	3.1%	97%
YX 3478 Republic	CVG 07:47	EWR 09:51	8%	3%	3.1%	no record
DL 5069 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CVG 06:40	EWR 08:39	8%	4%	2.5%	90%
YX 3684 Republic	CVG 11:56	EWR 14:17	17%	7%	2.7%	no record
UA 4385 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	CVG 10:03	EWR 12:17	18%	6%	3.3%	96%worse than usual
YX 3696 Republic	CVG 16:40	EWR 18:44	33%	16%	9.6%	no record
DL 5083 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CVG 17:19	EWR 19:18	47%	20%	9.8%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON