Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 17% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 393 Delta Flight history →	CVG 07:00	LAX 08:30	11%	2%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 03m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:00 → BOS 08:22DL 5790 · flown by Republic	2h 33m Boston	BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004	11h 03m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 14m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	9h 12m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:18 → AUS 10:06DL 5005 · flown by Endeavor	3h 34m Austin	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	9h 30m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	2h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 01m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:40 → SEA 08:34DL 966	1h 31m Seattle	SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769	9h 15m	97%	81%
American Details →	CVG 07:53 → PHL 09:43AA 5578 · flown by PSA	3h 07m Philadelphia	PHL 12:50 → LAX 15:37AA 2944	10h 44m	96%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CVG 18:21 → ATL 20:04DL 1008	46m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → LAX 22:32DL 331	7h 11m	70%	53%
American Details →	CVG 15:13 → DFW 16:48AA 3305	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:38 → LAX 18:54AA 2125	6h 41m	60%	36%
United Details →	CVG 07:25 → ORD 07:56UA 2752	52m Chicago	ORD 08:48 → LAX 11:26UA 2814	7h 01m	17%	11%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON