Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 5514 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 5514 CVG 06:01 → PHL 08:02 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 2987 CVG 19:10 → PHL 20:51 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5514 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 06:01	PHL 08:02	12%	6%	1.9%	72%
OH 5551 PSA	CVG 09:06	PHL 11:30	13%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 5578 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 07:53	PHL 09:43	16%	6%	1.7%	86%
OH 5298 PSA	CVG 11:21	PHL 13:12	18%	7%	1.5%	no record
OH 5546 PSA	CVG 16:23	PHL 18:06	30%	10%	2.3%	no record
AA 2987 American	CVG 19:10	PHL 20:51	36%	14%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON