Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


F9 1668 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 08:52	TPA 11:16	14%	6%	0.8%	88%
DL 1679 Delta Flight history →	CVG 18:00	TPA 20:16	16%	7%	1.2%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227	4h 33m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	4h 20m	97%	83%
American Details →	CVG 05:08 → CLT 06:35AA 429	1h 23m Charlotte	CLT 07:58 → TPA 09:58AA 649	4h 50m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:08 → DTW 07:24DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	2h 51m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587	6h 42m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 14:14 → TPA 15:56DL 1720	5h 51m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	CVG 13:29 → RDU 15:00DL 5400 · flown by Endeavor	3h 07m Raleigh/Durham	RDU 18:07 → TPA 20:03DL 1275	6h 34m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	5h 58m	99%	77%
United Details →	CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07UA 3423 · flown by Republic	1h 03m Newark	EWR 09:10 → TPA 12:16UA 1415	6h 16m	96%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CVG 15:45 → BOS 17:21DL 5598 · flown by Republic	1h 25m Boston	BOS 18:46 → TPA 22:10DL 2234	6h 25m	73%	47%
Delta Details →	CVG 15:35 → LGA 17:31DL 4682 · flown by Endeavor	1h 24m New York	LGA 18:55 → TPA 22:15DL 2433	6h 40m	75%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON