Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


G4 398 Allegiant	CVG 07:39	VPS 08:36	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
G4 412 Allegiant	CVG 17:49	VPS 18:46	17%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 08:20 → VPS 08:31DL 3051	3h 57m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 10:42 → VPS 11:00DL 2048	4h 51m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 14:32 → VPS 14:53DL 2832	5h 48m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	CVG 18:21 → ATL 20:04DL 1008	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 08m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:53 → ATL 18:36DL 3169	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	4h 56m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	CVG 13:32 → ATL 15:06DL 3149	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → VPS 18:16DL 2803	5h 44m	96%	76%
American Details →	CVG 15:13 → DFW 16:48AA 3305	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:02 → VPS 21:01AA 1201	6h 48m	96%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON