Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1433 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1433 DAL 06:20 → PHX 06:58 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1305 DAL 19:03 → PHX 19:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1433 Southwest	DAL 06:20	PHX 06:58	7%	1%	4.6%	no record
WN 1434 Southwest	DAL 08:25	PHX 09:02	15%	3%	1.9%	no record
WN 873 Southwest	DAL 09:30	PHX 10:06	16%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 1435 Southwest	DAL 11:21	PHX 11:59	21%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 1440 Southwest	DAL 23:41	PHX 00:24	23%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 1436 Southwest	DAL 14:09	PHX 14:42	25%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 1437 Southwest	DAL 17:42	PHX 18:16	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 1439 Southwest	DAL 21:24	PHX 22:01	31%	7%	1.0%	no record
WN 1305 Southwest	DAL 19:03	PHX 19:40	33%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON