Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 1462 at 07:42, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1462 Southwest	DAL 07:42	SFO 09:38	21%	6%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:47 → ATL 09:51DL 516	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	10h 03m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 23:14 → SFO 01:06 +1DL 656	11h 07m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823	9h 24m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 17:57 → SFO 19:57DL 495	9h 38m	95%	62%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:20 → MDW 17:38WN 1414	3h 46m Chicago	MDW 21:24 → SFO 23:49WN 4327	10h 29m	100%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON