Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 2465 at 20:09, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2465 Southwest	DAL 20:09	SNA 21:21	31%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:47 → ATL 09:51DL 516	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	7h 44m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:55 → SNA 18:22DL 2012	10h 15m	99%	68%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 20:29 → SNA 21:57DL 826	7h 58m	80%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON