Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 425 at 13:53, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 425 Southwest	DAL 13:53	TYS 16:52	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072	6h 53m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 14:39 → TYS 15:40DL 1148	4h 33m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → TYS 18:44DL 3042	5h 25m	95%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON