Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 1481 at 09:55, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1481 Southwest	DAL 09:55	VPS 11:51	11%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 14:32 → VPS 14:53DL 2832	4h 46m	93%	80%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:30 → HOU 12:45WN 19	2h 54m Houston	HOU 15:39 → VPS 17:27WN 1155	5h 57m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:47 → ATL 09:51DL 516	51m Atlanta	ATL 10:42 → VPS 11:00DL 2048	4h 13m	86%	77%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → VPS 18:16DL 2803	5h 57m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	4h 50m	85%	73%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	4h 50m	82%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON