tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 5229 at 06:01, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5229 American flown by PSA Flight history → DAY 06:01 PHL 07:58 10% 6% 2.3% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DAY 06:00 → ATL 07:40DL 3140 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 4h 57m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → DAY 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5234 · flown by PSA 1h 25m Charlotte CLT 09:45 → PHL 11:33AA 2565 5h 02m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → DAY 15:19 → ATL 17:14DL 2763 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 20:21 → PHL 22:24DL 1174 7h 05m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → DAY 08:30 → CLT 10:19AA 5242 · flown by PSA 3h 43m Charlotte CLT 14:02 → PHL 15:50AA 2573 7h 20m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → DAY 18:38 → ATL 20:29DL 3088 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 21m 93% 71%
AmericanDetails → DAY 05:53 → DFW 07:38AA 5157 · flown by PSA 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:38 → PHL 14:00AA 402 8h 07m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02DL 3108 58m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 4h 41m 93% 70%
UnitedDetails → DAY 06:59 → ORD 07:15UA 4402 · flown by GoJet 2h 03m Chicago ORD 09:18 → PHL 12:30UA 729 5h 31m 90% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DAY 14:23 → ORD 14:49UA 4173 · flown by GoJet 1h 30m Chicago ORD 16:19 → PHL 19:38UA 2825 5h 15m 75% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON