Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YX 4362 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–38%.

Safest bet that day YX 4362 DCA 07:57 → ALB 09:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5065 DCA 22:15 → ALB 23:42 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4362 Republic	DCA 07:57	ALB 09:36	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
OH 5026 PSA	DCA 12:16	ALB 13:43	27%	10%	1.4%	no record
AA 5501 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:15	ALB 18:58	37%	16%	2.6%	69%
AA 5065 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:15	ALB 23:42	38%	16%	2.5%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON