Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: MQ 3414 at 20:51 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–41%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3414 DCA 20:51 → BHM 22:08 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5226 DCA 15:08 → BHM 16:14 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3414 Envoy	DCA 20:51	BHM 22:08	24%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 5332 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:00	BHM 10:15	27%	9%	1.3%	92%worse than usual
OH 5226 PSA	DCA 15:08	BHM 16:14	41%	14%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON