tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, OH 5061 at 21:16, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OH 5061 PSA DCA 21:16 CHA 23:26 33% 14% 2.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → CHA 15:22DL 4925 · flown by Endeavor 5h 06m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 13:13 → CHA 14:02DL 3141 6h 02m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558 1h 47m Detroit DTW 12:56 → CHA 14:40DL 5117 · flown by Endeavor 5h 01m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 21:13 → CHA 22:10DL 1366 6h 10m 94% 73%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 17:54 → CHA 18:53DL 5376 · flown by Endeavor 6h 26m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 22:50 → CHA 23:47DL 1904 5h 17m 88% 70%
AmericanDetails → DCA 11:59 → DFW 14:23AA 1623 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:32 → CHA 19:40AA 5471 · flown by PSA 7h 41m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:50 → IAH 11:22UA 697 1h 28m Houston IAH 12:50 → CHA 16:03UA 5091 · flown by SkyWest 7h 13m 94% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:40 → LGA 18:59DL 5763 · flown by Republic 1h 08m New York LGA 20:07 → CHA 22:27DL 5276 · flown by Endeavor 4h 47m 50% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON