Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: MQ 3891 at 08:58 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–38%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3891 DCA 08:58 → CHS 10:52 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2203 DCA 20:19 → CHS 22:15 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3891 Envoy	DCA 08:58	CHS 10:52	17%	4%	2.7%	no record
YX 4651 Republic	DCA 17:09	CHS 19:22	21%	8%	2.5%	no record
AA 5607 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:59	CHS 13:55	26%	9%	2.9%	83%
AA 5568 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:03	CHS 16:07	33%	13%	2.8%	70%
AA 2203 American	DCA 20:19	CHS 22:15	38%	13%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON