Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: OH 5296 at 12:15 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5296 PSA	DCA 12:15	DSM 14:13	22%	11%	2.1%	no record
AA 5432 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:50	DSM 22:39	39%	19%	3.4%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704	5h 45m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 36m Detroit	DTW 09:05 → DSM 09:57DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	4h 57m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 09:25 → DSM 10:40DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	5h 40m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	6h 34m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:23 → DTW 14:00DL 2476	2h 40m Detroit	DTW 16:40 → DSM 17:33DL 5345 · flown by Endeavor	6h 10m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	3h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 13:24 → DSM 14:27DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	7h 42m	99%	75%
United Details →	DCA 08:50 → IAH 11:22UA 697	2h 00m Houston	IAH 13:22 → DSM 15:50UA 6166 · flown by Mesa	8h 00m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306	7h 29m	94%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	1h 05m Detroit	DTW 20:20 → DSM 21:12DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor	4h 43m	69%	50%
United Details →	DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 19:51 → DSM 21:12UA 1839	5h 07m	73%	45%
United Details →	DCA 14:00 → ORD 15:18UA 1888	58m Chicago	ORD 16:16 → DSM 17:37UA 2836	4h 37m	62%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON