Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2869 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–50%.

Safest bet that day DL 2869 DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OH 5269 DCA 20:51 → DTW 22:34 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2869 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	DTW 07:29	5%	3%	1.2%	94%
AA 4616 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:45	DTW 12:32	13%	4%	1.0%	84%
DL 1558 Delta Flight history →	DCA 09:39	DTW 11:09	15%	4%	1.0%	86%
DL 2476 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:23	DTW 14:00	16%	8%	1.1%	87%
AA 5660 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:27	DTW 09:09	18%	7%	1.8%	85%
DL 1454 Delta Flight history →	DCA 17:29	DTW 19:15	33%	12%	1.7%	64%
DL 1683 Delta	DCA 19:26	DTW 21:01	34%	17%	2.0%	no record
OH 5371 PSA	DCA 15:11	DTW 17:03	37%	15%	3.1%	no record
OH 5269 PSA	DCA 20:51	DTW 22:34	50%	22%	3.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON