Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 5267 at 08:49 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 5267 DCA 08:49 → GSP 10:31 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 5044 DCA 19:35 → GSP 21:24 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5267 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:49	GSP 10:31	23%	5%	1.3%	79%
OH 5468 PSA	DCA 14:59	GSP 16:47	32%	12%	2.0%	no record
AA 5044 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:35	GSP 21:24	39%	17%	2.7%	100%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON