Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 4701 at 10:23 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 4701 DCA 10:23 → IND 12:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 4520 DCA 19:35 → IND 21:30 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4701 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:23	IND 12:53	9%	3%	1.1%	88%
OH 5072 PSA	DCA 07:19	IND 09:24	12%	7%	1.3%	no record
MQ 4141 Envoy	DCA 12:44	IND 14:31	18%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 4707 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:20	IND 17:25	20%	8%	2.0%	100%worse than usual
YX 430 Republic	DCA 15:16	IND 17:19	21%	8%	1.6%	no record
AA 4501 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:07	IND 19:07	26%	10%	1.7%	68%
AA 4520 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:35	IND 21:30	29%	11%	2.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON