tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2149 American DCA 07:44 LAS 10:12 14% 3% 0.8% no record
WN 2232 Southwest DCA 16:34 LAS 18:43 38% 8% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 1h 38m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 7h 31m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 00m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493 1h 45m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 41m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 30m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 7h 12m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 10h 13m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → LAS 17:19DL 659 10h 03m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549 9h 18m 96% 77%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 07:59 → STL 09:25WN 1519 3h 29m St Louis STL 12:54 → LAS 14:22WN 4079 9h 23m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → DCA 17:16 → PDX 20:04AS 9 49m Portland PDX 20:53 → LAS 23:05AS 774 8h 49m 56% 47%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:46 → EWR 18:59UA 4180 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Newark EWR 20:11 → LAS 22:37UA 1283 7h 51m 61% 33%
JetBlueDetails → DCA 16:43 → FLL 19:28B6 1579 59m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:27 → LAS 22:32B6 607 8h 49m 48% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON