Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 4523 at 16:27 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 4523 DCA 16:27 → MSN 18:03 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 5221 DCA 21:22 → MSN 22:54 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4523 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 16:27	MSN 18:03	25%	10%	2.0%	95%worse than usual
AA 5373 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:34	MSN 12:05	26%	12%	2.8%	49%
DL 5645 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:20	MSN 16:39	27%	9%	2.1%	80%
AA 5221 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 21:22	MSN 22:54	37%	17%	3.1%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON