tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: YX 4469 at 09:54 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4469 Republic DCA 09:54 MYR 11:46 12% 4% 5.0% no record
MQ 4169 Envoy DCA 17:52 MYR 19:23 32% 13% 4.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 16m Detroit DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145 4h 39m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MYR 13:37DL 3182 5h 37m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 07m Atlanta ATL 08:48 → MYR 10:07DL 3047 4h 07m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → MYR 18:03DL 1093 5h 36m 97% 68%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:22 → CLT 18:53AA 2182 2h 19m Charlotte CLT 21:12 → MYR 22:20AA 1085 4h 58m 92% 65%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 22:12 → MYR 23:31DL 3074 5h 01m 83% 65%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:23 → CLT 16:58AA 2040 1h 34m Charlotte CLT 18:32 → MYR 19:45AA 1417 4h 22m 88% 61%
UnitedDetails → DCA 11:51 → EWR 13:18UA 4446 · flown by GoJet 2h 37m Newark EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic 6h 12m 92% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON