Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 5599 at 09:22 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40–46%.

Safest bet that day AA 5599 DCA 09:22 → PNS 11:12 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 5544 DCA 19:21 → PNS 21:00 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5599 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:22	PNS 11:12	26%	10%	1.5%	83%
OH 5139 PSA	DCA 15:39	PNS 17:23	40%	16%	2.0%	no record
AA 5544 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:21	PNS 21:00	46%	22%	3.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON