Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1947 American Flight history →	DCA 17:18	SAT 20:15	38%	12%	1.2%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667	6h 49m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:29 → SAT 13:03DL 1408	8h 03m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → BOS 07:45DL 5710 · flown by Republic	1h 15m Boston	BOS 09:00 → SAT 12:24DL 816	7h 24m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	56m Detroit	DTW 08:25 → SAT 10:34DL 788	5h 34m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009	8h 10m	98%	77%
United Details →	DCA 08:50 → IAH 11:22UA 697	3h 19m Houston	IAH 14:41 → SAT 15:51UA 2030	8h 01m	99%	77%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 18m Houston	IAH 09:31 → SAT 10:41UA 1371	5h 41m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558	2h 32m Detroit	DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458	7h 12m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	DCA 13:09 → DEN 15:10F9 687	1h 03m Denver	DEN 16:13 → SAT 19:35F9 2356	7h 26m	73%	46%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 20:15 → SAT 22:22DL 1365	5h 53m	67%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON