Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	2h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383	9h 01m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 30m	98%	84%
American Details →	DCA 05:05 → DFW 07:37AA 2007	1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:20 → SJC 11:22AA 2046	9h 17m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820	2h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272	8h 54m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	9h 25m	97%	76%
American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:28 → SJC 14:30AA 2834	10h 31m	99%	75%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	1h 51m Chicago	ORD 09:37 → SJC 12:19UA 307	8h 49m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:35 → SEA 19:41DL 786	1h 16m Seattle	SEA 20:57 → SJC 23:16DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest	9h 41m	85%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 07:37 → ORD 08:51UA 441	46m Chicago	ORD 09:37 → SJC 12:19UA 307	7h 42m	64%	49%
Alaska Details →	DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3	47m Seattle	SEA 20:46 → SJC 22:54AS 403	8h 54m	63%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON