Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 4223 DCA 10:15 → SYR 11:45 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3975 DCA 22:35 → SYR 23:57 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4223 Envoy	DCA 10:15	SYR 11:45	18%	5%	1.1%	no record
YX 4555 Republic	DCA 15:47	SYR 17:25	21%	8%	1.7%	no record
AA 3975 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 22:35	SYR 23:57	28%	8%	2.5%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON