tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, OH 5497 at 13:36, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OH 5497 PSA DCA 13:36 TUL 15:48 29% 12% 2.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 56m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 6h 37m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:50 → IAH 11:22UA 697 3h 21m Houston IAH 14:43 → TUL 16:34UA 6176 · flown by Mesa 8h 44m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:05 → DFW 07:37AA 2007 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:59 → TUL 12:14AA 2352 8h 09m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518 1h 26m Charlotte CLT 11:39 → TUL 13:26AA 2657 5h 56m 90% 74%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 6h 37m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:57 → ORD 07:09AA 2304 1h 08m Chicago ORD 08:17 → TUL 10:25AA 4135 · flown by Envoy 5h 28m 91% 73%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → TUL 00:00 +1DL 2043 6h 30m 88% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON