Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: OH 5109 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–36%.

Safest bet that day OH 5109 DCA 08:29 → TYS 10:15 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5484 DCA 19:46 → TYS 21:33 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5109 PSA	DCA 08:29	TYS 10:15	21%	7%	1.3%	no record
OH 5224 PSA	DCA 15:47	TYS 17:34	31%	16%	1.6%	no record
AA 5484 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:46	TYS 21:33	36%	22%	2.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON