Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3622 Envoy	DCA 10:27	VPS 12:07	16%	4%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 10:42 → VPS 11:00DL 2048	6h 00m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:32 → VPS 14:53DL 2832	5h 37m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	5h 59m	91%	78%
American Details →	DCA 05:05 → DFW 07:37AA 2007	2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:44 → VPS 11:49AA 3089	7h 44m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → VPS 18:16DL 2803	6h 49m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	5h 49m	92%	76%
American Details →	DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518	1h 25m Charlotte	CLT 11:38 → VPS 12:29AA 5165 · flown by PSA	4h 59m	90%	71%
American Details →	DCA 08:22 → DFW 10:39AA 1978	2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:19 → VPS 15:15AA 2501	7h 53m	97%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	51m Atlanta	ATL 10:42 → VPS 11:00DL 2048	4h 00m	73%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON