Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 3452 at 19:19, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3452 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 19:19	XNA 21:18	29%	9%	4.1%	82%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:45 → XNA 14:04AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	8h 05m	99%	82%
American Details →	DCA 08:22 → DFW 10:39AA 1978	3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	8h 05m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:23 → DTW 14:00DL 2476	1h 47m Detroit	DTW 15:47 → XNA 17:09DL 4889 · flown by Endeavor	5h 46m	94%	79%
American Details →	DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624	3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:40 → XNA 23:03AA 4101 · flown by Envoy	8h 50m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → XNA 09:36DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	4h 36m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:44 → XNA 16:36DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	7h 20m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → XNA 00:02 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	6h 32m	89%	73%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → XNA 22:12DL 1864	7h 12m	94%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 17:11 → PHL 18:16AA 5248 · flown by PSA	1h 22m Philadelphia	PHL 19:38 → XNA 21:55AA 5628 · flown by PSA	5h 44m	66%	47%
American Details →	DCA 16:57 → ORD 18:10AA 1189	48m Chicago	ORD 18:58 → XNA 20:47AA 3578 · flown by Envoy	4h 50m	31%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON