Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1557 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 1557 DEN 08:29 → BUR 10:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4390 DEN 20:19 → BUR 21:53 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1557 Southwest	DEN 08:29	BUR 10:04	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2154 United Flight history →	DEN 11:50	BUR 13:25	18%	6%	0.6%	85%
WN 2620 Southwest	DEN 11:39	BUR 13:14	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1558 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:37	BUR 18:10	31%	12%	0.7%	60%
UA 2411 United Flight history →	DEN 19:43	BUR 21:17	34%	15%	0.7%	67%
WN 4390 Southwest	DEN 20:19	BUR 21:53	42%	16%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON