Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1560 at 04:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 1560 DEN 04:59 → BWI 10:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1143 DEN 15:28 → BWI 20:54 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1560 Southwest	DEN 04:59	BWI 10:23	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4120 Southwest	DEN 00:29	BWI 05:56	12%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 1362 United Flight history →	DEN 09:46	BWI 15:17	14%	4%	0.7%	89%
WN 1509 Southwest	DEN 09:49	BWI 15:15	18%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2843 United	DEN 18:04	BWI 23:32	34%	13%	0.9%	no record
WN 1563 Southwest	DEN 13:08	BWI 18:32	39%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 1564 Southwest	DEN 18:37	BWI 00:03	42%	11%	0.9%	no record
WN 1143 Southwest	DEN 15:28	BWI 20:54	42%	11%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON