Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1003 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1003 United Flight history →	DEN 09:50	CHS 15:14	13%	4%	1.0%	85%
WN 1190 Southwest	DEN 14:49	CHS 20:05	33%	8%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 07:40 → CHS 08:56DL 5475 · flown by Endeavor	6h 16m	99%	87%
United Details →	DEN 06:13 → IAD 11:41UA 1279	1h 33m Dulles	IAD 13:14 → CHS 15:05UA 1952	6h 52m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → CHS 15:02DL 1381	7h 17m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	3h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 12:42 → CHS 16:25DL 2463	8h 25m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:05 → ATL 17:05DL 995	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → CHS 22:07DL 1663	8h 02m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → CHS 16:28DL 2174	7h 13m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 19:03 → CHS 20:17DL 2493	7h 25m	100%	77%
United Details →	DEN 07:42 → IAH 11:15UA 1720	3h 51m Houston	IAH 15:06 → CHS 18:16UA 6295 · flown by Mesa	8h 34m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DEN 16:35 → ATL 21:49DL 840	51m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → CHS 23:54DL 2850	5h 19m	67%	54%
American Details →	DEN 14:24 → CLT 19:43AA 1662	1h 05m Charlotte	CLT 20:48 → CHS 22:05AA 425	5h 41m	67%	47%
Delta Details →	DEN 13:14 → ATL 18:14DL 706	49m Atlanta	ATL 19:03 → CHS 20:17DL 2493	5h 03m	59%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON