Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: OO 5361 at 08:06 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–41%.

Safest bet that day OO 5361 DEN 08:06 → DSM 11:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2361 DEN 21:24 → DSM 00:14 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5361 SkyWest	DEN 08:06	DSM 11:13	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 596 United Flight history →	DEN 10:00	DSM 12:51	13%	4%	0.6%	83%
WN 3984 Southwest	DEN 10:39	DSM 13:28	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1311 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	DSM 16:15	25%	9%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
UA 549 United Flight history →	DEN 18:02	DSM 20:55	29%	13%	0.7%	77%
UA 1213 United	DEN 21:08	DSM 00:05	31%	13%	1.9%	no record
F9 1678 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:41	DSM 19:40	38%	15%	0.9%	83%worse than usual
WN 2361 Southwest	DEN 21:24	DSM 00:14	41%	13%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON