Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3995 at 08:34 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 3995 DEN 08:34 → EUG 10:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4411 DEN 20:49 → EUG 22:33 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3995 Southwest	DEN 08:34	EUG 10:17	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 318 United Flight history →	DEN 11:51	EUG 13:37	18%	6%	0.7%	73%
UA 1303 United Flight history →	DEN 20:13	EUG 21:59	35%	13%	1.0%	75%
WN 4411 Southwest	DEN 20:49	EUG 22:33	37%	12%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON