tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 384 United Flight history → DEN 12:00 HNL 15:13 21% 7% 0.6% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 11h 43m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 3h 51m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 12h 18m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 10h 28m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 3h 41m San Francisco SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25UA 1509 12h 04m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → LAX 09:32UA 1638 3h 47m Los Angeles LAX 13:19 → HNL 16:26UA 1224 12h 26m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093 1h 31m Los Angeles LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158 9h 49m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 3h 48m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170 11h 59m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 10h 35m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 51m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 8h 57m 71% 56%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 17:55 → SEA 19:41AS 615 1h 06m Seattle SEA 20:47 → HNL 23:21AS 268 9h 26m 63% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON